Measuring Fertility Intentions During Times of Crisis: An Example Using Survey Data Amid the Covid-19 Pandemic.

Fertility intentions-intentions regarding whether and when to have children-predict reproductive health outcomes. Measuring fertility intentions is difficult, particularly during macrostructural shocks, for at least two reasons: (1) fertility intentions may be especially volatile during periods of uncertainty and (2) macrostructural shocks may constrain data collection. We propose a set of indicators that capture how a macrostructural shock directly alters fertility intentions, with a particular focus on the Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic. We advance the conceptualization and construct of fertility intentions measures in three ways. First, we demonstrate the value of direct questions about whether women attributed changes in fertility intentions to the pandemic. Second, we highlight the importance of a typology that delineates fertility postponement, advancement, foregoing, and indecision. Third, we demonstrate the importance of incorporating a granular time window within a two-year period to capture short-term changes to fertility intentions. We exemplify the value of our proposed measures using survey data from a probabilistic sample of women aged 18-34 in Pernambuco, Brazil. We discuss the self-reported change in intentions due to Covid in wave 1 as well as panel change across waves. We further ground our contributions by uncovering important variations by social origin and parity.

Fertility trends during successive novel infectious disease outbreaks: Zika and COVID-19 in Brazil.

This study aims to estimate fertility trends in Brazil in the 2010s and early 2020s during a period of back-to-back novel infectious disease outbreaks - Zika virus and COVID-19. We use Brazilian Ministry of Health and Association of Civil Registrar data from 2011-2021 to measure general fertility rates at the national and state levels. We also used seasonal ARIMA model to forecast fertility rates by month and state in 2021 and compared these forecasts with observed fertility rates. We find that fertility rates were steady over 2011-2015 with no statistically significant variation, followed by a sharp decline during the Zika outbreak in 2016 followed by a return to pre-Zika levels after the end of the epidemic. Furthermore, to evaluate the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic, we make comparisons with observed and forecast rates from 2020-2021, showing that declines were generally larger for observed than for forecast rates, yet statistically insignificant. We argue that the resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021 might lead to further declines, as women might have not had enough time to adjust rebound from either the effects of the Zika epidemic. We also discuss the importance of timely availability of live births data during a public health crisis with immediate consequences for fertility rates.

Current and Future Food Insufficiency During Covid-19: Examining Disparities by Race/Ethnicity and Recent Work Loss.

The Covid-19 pandemic, which began in early 2020, has eroded the previous decade's reductions in food insecurity. Pandemic-related food insufficiency has been concentrated among Black and Hispanic households and those who have experienced a recent work loss. Households with children are particularly vulnerable. Using the first twenty-one weeks of the US Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey data from April 2020 through December of 2020, we examine the association between recent work losses and food insufficiency and document the extent to which the impact varies by race/ethnicity. Work loss is predictive of current and future food insufficiency, with the association most acutely experienced by Blacks and Hispanics and households with children. There is evidence of racial/ethnic disparities in current and future food insufficiency. The results provide insight into how the pandemic has widened racial/ethnic gaps in the experience of food insufficiency despite recent policy interventions.